西北农林科技大学学报社会科学版

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吕卫东

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王倩

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双月刊

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创刊时间：
2001年1月

主办单位：
西北农林科技大学

主管单位：
中华人民共和国教育部

国内统一刊号：
CN 61-1376/C

国际标准刊号：
ISSN 1009-9107

编辑部地址：
712100 陕西杨凌西北农林科大北校区34信箱

刘学武,王仲梅.合并新村脆弱性决定因子识别——基于宁夏永宁县试验区的探索[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2022,22(1):66~76

合并新村脆弱性决定因子识别——基于宁夏永宁县试验区的探索

Identification of Vulnerability Determinants for Merged Villages——Based on the Exploratory Research of Experimental Area of Yongning County in Ningxia

DOI：

中文关键词: 合并新村脆弱性结构方程模型灰色定权聚类模型决定因子

英文关键词:merged villages vulnerability structural equation model grey fixed weight clustering model determinant

基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41761035);国家社会科学基金项目(17BMZ107);理论经济学西部一流学科建设资金支持项目(NXYLXK2017B04)

作者	单位
刘学武	（1.宁夏大学经济管理学院/西部发展研究中心 2.宁夏大学经济管理学院，银川 750021）
王仲梅	（1.宁夏大学经济管理学院/西部发展研究中心 2.宁夏大学经济管理学院，银川 750021）

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中文摘要:

村庄合并是对传统村镇空间结构与组织形态的重大变革,是村民生计方式与社会结构的重大调整。合并新村建设初期因为居住环境、公用基础设施、公共服务体系不够完善,常表现出一定程度的脆弱性。脆弱性扰动、敏感性、适应力是抽象概念，不可直接观测。通过构建合并新村脆弱性结构方程模型对潜在变量对应的15个观测变量进行估计,有效排除了主观性判断影响,识别出5个重要影响因子。低保水平、政民互动因子是扰动的重要影响因子,养老保险、政策兑现因子是敏感性的重要影响因子,对外交通是适应力的重要影响因子。灰色定权聚类模型克服了结构方程模型能识别重要与次要因子但无法判断影响状态的不足之处。对上述重要影响因子与县域人均GDP指标进行再评估,最终识别出4个脆弱性决定因子,其中低保水平是脆弱性的扰动决定因子,养老保险、政策兑现是脆弱性的敏感性决定因子,县域人均GDP值是脆弱性的适应力决定因子。

英文摘要:

The construction of the new merged villages is a major change in the spatial structure and organizational form of traditional villages and towns,and a major adjustment in the livelihood and social structure of villagers. At the initial stage of the merger,the new villages often showed a certain degree of vulnerability due to the inadequate living environment,public infrastructure and public service system.The perturbation,sensitivity and adaptability of vulnerability are potential variables,which cannot be directly observed.The structural equation model is used to estimate the 15 observed variables corresponding to the three potential variables,which effectively eliminates the adverse effects caused by researchers’ subjective judgment,and finally identifies 5 important impact factors.Among them,the level of subsistence allowances and the interaction between the government and the people are important influencing factors of disturbance,pension insurance and policy implementation are important influencing factors of sensitivity,and external transportation is an important influencing factor of adaptability.The gray fixed weight clustering model overcomes the shortcomings of the structural equation model that can only identify important and minor factors,but cannot judge the impact level.The above 5 important impact factors and the county per capita GDP indicator were reevaluated,and finally 4 were identified.Vulnerability determinants,among which the minimum guarantee level is the perturbation determinant of vulnerability,and pension insurance and policy implementation are the sensitive determinants of vulnerability,and the per capita GDP value of the county is the determinant of the adaptability of vulnerability.

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